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We specify the Pitman-closeness criterion for the evaluation of multivariate forecasts in three categories. This is done closely to the definition of covariance adjustment techniques analysed in other articles. We also apply the Pitman-closeness techniques to an example dealing with German...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009793271
An unbiased point estimator T for an unknown parameter θ can be improved in the sense of the Mean Squared Error (MSE) by T = λT λ for suitable factors λ. Here, we want to discuss this approach in the context of combination of forecasts. We consider the shrinkage technique for unbiased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009783012
Error measures for the evaluation of forecasts are usually based on the size of the forecast errors. Common measures are e.g. the Mean Squared Error (MSE), the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) or the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Alternative measures for the comparison of forecasts are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009783558
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467707
We use the Pitman-closeness criterion to evaluate the performance of multivariate forecasting methods and we also calculate optimal matrices of weights for the linear combination of multivariate forecasts. These weights are identical with the optimal weights under the matrix-MSE criterion.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467726
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004747536
We use the Pitman-closeness criterion to evaluate the performance of multivariate forecasting methods and we also calculate optimal matrices of weights for the linear combination of multivariate forecasts. These weights are identical with the optimal weights under the matrix-MSE criterion.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316562
An unbiased point estimator T for an unknown parameter θ can be improved in the sense of the Mean Squared Error (MSE) by T = λT λ for suitable factors λ. Here, we want to discuss this approach in the context of combination of forecasts. We consider the shrinkage technique for unbiased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316576
Error measures for the evaluation of forecasts are usually based on the size of the forecast errors. Common measures are e.g. the Mean Squared Error (MSE), the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) or the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Alternative measures for the comparison of forecasts are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316615
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316637