Time series analysis is an important and complex problem in machine learning and statistics. Real-world applications can consist of very large and high dimensional time series data. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are a popular tool for the analysis of such data sets. This paper presents some SVM...

This paper is concerned with testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration among I(1) variables when the cointegration residuals are I(d) with 0 < d <1. This possibility is entertained with increasing frequency in many applications, (see e.g. Cheung and Lai 1993 Baillie and Bollerslev 1994 Booth and Tse 1995 or Baillie 1996 for examples. We consider the power of various cointegration tests both for the stationary case d < 5 and for the nonstationary case d > 5.

The paper considers tests against for autocorrelation among the disturbances in linear regression models that can be expressed as ratios of quadratic forms. It shows that such tests are in general not unbiased and that power can even drop to zero for certain regressors and spatial weight...

The recent renaissance of business cycle analysis has led to a renewed interest in business cycle classification as pioneered by Burns/Mitchell, Spiethoff and resumed in the seventies by Meyer/Weinberg (1975a, b). The rather successful elaboration and test of a “modern” four-phase...

The paper discusses structural change as possible mechanism that generates the appearance of long memory in economic time series. It shows that there are no long memory effects in German stock returns and that long memory in squares of German stock returns disappears once shifting means are...

We investigate the OLS-based estimator s2 of the disturbance variance in the standard linear regression model with cross section data when the disturbances are homoskedastic, but spatially correlated. For the most popular model of spatially autoregressive disturbances, we show that s2 can be...

We investigate the effect of the 20 largest – in terms of insured losses – man-made or natural disasters on the insurance industry. We show via an event study that insurance markets worldwide are quite resilient to unexpected losses to capital and are even outperforming the general market...

We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody's and S&P at the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we consider partial orderings among competing probability...