This Paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain … reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labour market adjustment processes, (b) the … unemployment responses to each shock. Our analysis permits us to distinguish between the short- and long-run effects of the shocks …

This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain … reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor markets adjustment processes, (b) the … growth drivers. Estimating a system of labor market equations for a panel of EU countries, we derive the dynamic unemployment …

This paper provides a critique of the "unemployment invariance hypothesis", according to which the behavior of the … labor market ensures that the long-run unemployment rate is independent of the size of the capital stock, productivity, and … equilibrating mechanisms to ensure unemployment invariance and that other markets may perform part of the equilibrating process as …

the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our … the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and … ; US Unemployment ; Time Series Models …

predict the US monthly unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that … augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the unemployment rate for different out-of-sample intervals … confirmed when employing different keywords. Based on our results for the unemployment rate, we believe that there will be an …

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We … propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises … information to predict domestic unemployment rates, at least for these last seven countries …

in NAIRU but do not appear as promising explanations of the events of the early 1990s. The fall in unemployment in the …By international standards, unemployment in Sweden remained remarkably low throughout the 1970s and the 1980s. In the … early 1990s, however, the unemployment rate skyrocketed and hit double-digit levels. Unemployment remained high for several …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

uncover the trend changes in these flows, which determine the trend in the unemployment rate. We argue that this trend rate … margin after 2000, pushing trend unemployment up. But the trend in the separation rate has somewhat offset that effect, with … unemployment rate, most of the low-frequency variation in the rate can be accounted for by changes in the trend of the separation …

This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved-components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time-varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …