We develop a new variational Bayes estimation method for large-dimensional sparse vector autoregressive models with exogenous predictors. Unlike existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational Bayes (VB) algorithms, our approach is not based on a structural form representation of the...

We investigate the transmission of financial shocks through the macroeconomy. To that end we develop an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities. First, we allow for the transition probabilities to be dependent on the state of...

We conduct a novel empirical analysis of the role of leverage of financial institutions for the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy. For that purpose, we develop an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities that...

This work quantifies the financial and macroeconomic effects of the most significant Brexit events from 23 June 2016 up to 31 December 2019 for fifteen economies. The study uses high-frequency data and shows that following the referendum outcome, overall the 10-year government bond yield of the...

We investigate the role of systemic financial instability in an empirical macrofinancial model for the euro area, employing a richly specified Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression model to capture the dynamic relationships between a set of core macroeconomic variables and a novel indicator of...

In a market-based financial system, like that of the US, liquidity conditions best expressed in terms of change of broker-dealers balance sheet. To empirically address the issue, aggregated balance-sheet data of broker-dealers from the US flow-of-fund got incorporated into a Bayesian TVP-VAR...

A large body of literature has failed to find conclusive evidence that the expectations theory of the term structure holds in U.S. data. This paper asks more narrowly whether the theory holds conditional on an exogenous change in monetary policy. We argue that previous work on the expectation...

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

A financial stress index for the United States is introduced – an index that was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the financial crisis of 2008-9 – and the interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy is demonstrated using a richly...

We analyze the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy. We estimate a Markov switching VAR for the euro area and the US, including additionally GDP, CPI and a short-term interest rate. We find evidence for two distinct states in both regions....