The authors evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile. Forecast errors for the period 2000-2008 show an excess of autocorrelation and a statistically significant bias at the end of the sample. The authors take advantage of the...

We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile. Forecast errors for the period 2000-2008 show an excess of autocorrelation and a statistically significant bias at the end of the sample. We take advantage of the autocorrelation...

It is well known that weighted averages of two competing forecasts may reduce Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) and may also introduce certain inefficiencies. In this paper we take an in-depth view of one particular type of inefficiency stemming from simple combination schemes. We identify...

In this article we explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that several activity measures make when predicting inflation in Chile. For that purpose, we use backward-looking Phillips curves and make use of a real-time database to get an evaluation of predictive ability...

In this paper we evaluate the Central Bank of Chile annual GDP growth forecasts over the period 1991-2009 using a real-time database. We compare the Central Bank of Chile forecasts with those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Consensus Forecasts, and simple time-series models. We...

Communication with the public is an ever-growing practice among central banks and complements their decisions of interest rate setting. In this paper we examine one feature of the communicational practice of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) which summarizes the assessment of the Board about the...