The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset firesales. For example, insolvency of a given bank will create a shock to the asset side of the balance sheet of...

We show that for a certain class of dynamics at the nodes the response of a network of any topology to arbitrary inputs is defined in a simple way by its response to a monotone input. The nodes may have either a discrete or continuous set of states and there is no limit on the complexity of the...

A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between banks, the possibility of disassortative edge probabilities...

We extend the now classic structural credit modeling approach of Black and Cox to a class of "two-factor" models that unify equity securities such as options written on the stock price, and credit products like bonds and credit default swaps. In our approach, the two sides of the stylized...

Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviors to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective behavior of millions of social networking site users who are...

A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between banks, the possibility of disassortative edge probabilities...

Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis liter- ature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that can propagate distress contagiously both directly within...

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework for the joint survivorship of couples in the context of dynamic stochastic mortality models. The new framework gives an intuitive and flexible pairwise cohort-based probabilistic mechanism that can accommodate both deterministic and stochastic...

We present a new estimation of business opening and closure rates using data from Google Places-the data set behind the Google Maps service. Our algorithm, through a bisection routine, counts the appearance and disappearance of "pins" that represent unique businesses. As a proof of concept, we...