Recent research has questioned the usefulness of Vector Autoregression (VAR) models as a description of monetary policy, especially in light of the low correlation between forecast errors from VARs and those derived from Fed funds futures rates. This paper presents three findings on VARs'...

In aggregate unadjusted data, measured Solow residuals exhibit large seasonal variations. Total Factor Productivity grows rapidly in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 16 percent and regresses sharply in the first quarter at an annual rate of ?24 percent. This paper considers two potential...

We develop and implement a limited information diagnostic strategy for assessing the plausibility of monetary business cycle models. Our strategy focuses on a model's ability to reproduce empirical estimates of an actual economy's response to monetary policy shocks. A key input to this...