We investigate to what extent the market uses information that is predictive of whether earnings will meet or beat the analyst consensus forecast of earnings (MBE henceforth): measures of a firm's incentives to engage in MBE behavior, measures of constraints on MBE, measures of past MBE...

A consensus forecast commonly represents a simple average, or equal weighting, of individual analyst forecasts. We demonstrate, however, that an equal-weight consensus generally does not aggregate information in individual analyst forecasts efficiently and that an aggregation scheme informed by...

In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors documented in prior literature. In particular, we argue that the serial correlation pattern in analysts' quarterly earnings forecast errors is consistent with an...

In this paper, we propose a rational learning-based explanation for the predictability in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors documented in prior literature. In particular, we argue that the serial correlation pattern in analysts' quarterly earnings forecast errors is consistent with an...

We examine the determinants and the informativeness of financial analysts' risk ratings using a large sample of research reports issued by Salomon Smith Barney, now Citigroup. We find that the cross-sectional variation in risk ratings is largely explained by variables commonly viewed as risk...

Prior research on financial analysts' consensus earnings forecast errors has tended to explore either incentives-based or inefficient information use-based explanations for the properties of the analysts' forecast errors. This has limited our understanding of financial analysts' expectation...