The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate - business situation and business expectations - was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle...

This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary’s potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are...

This contribution investigates the business cycles of Switzerland compared to its five neighboring countries Germany, Austria, Italy, France and Liechtenstein. In contrast to the widespread notion of small countries "importing" the business cycle from bigger neighbors, it is shown that the real...

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...

We show that a business-cycle component of consumption growth (dubbed business-cycle consumption) with cycles between 2 and 4 years is effective in explaining the differences in risk premia across alternative test assets, including recently-proposed anomaly portfolios. We formalize the mapping...

In this note, we describe the construction of a coincident composite index measuring economic activity in the Finnish economy. We combine information from different sectors of the Finnish economy using a dynamic factor model that permits to extract the business cycle index. The underlying...

The aim of this paper is to show the usefulness of Finite Mixture Markov Models (FMMMs) for regional analysis. FMMMs combine clustering techniques and Markov Switching models, providing a powerful methodological framework to jointly obtain business cycle datings and clusters of regions that...

In this study, we use the tools of cross-spectral analysis and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) modelling to investigate whether there exists a significant link between the movement of the cyclical component of real GDP in developed and emerging economies. Specifically, we look at the...

Ein Standard stellt ein technisches Dokument dar, welches die Beschaffenheit, Leistung und Eigenschaften eines Produktes beschreibt. Er spezifiziert bspw. auch die Schnittstellen verschiedener Software in einem System, so dass eine Kompatibilität hergestellt wird (vgl. u.a. Cargill und Bolin,...

Ein Standard stellt ein technisches Dokument dar, welches die Beschaffenheit, Leistung und Eigenschaften eines Produktes beschreibt. Er spezifiziert bspw. auch die Schnittstellen verschiedener Software in einem System, so dass eine Kompatibilität hergestellt wird (vgl. u.a. Cargill und Bolin,...