For monetary policy purposes it is useful to apply a concept of potential output growth that looks through the fluctuations inherent in most model based estimates. Growth accounting can be a useful tool in this respect, given its focus on average developments in real GDP growth and supply side...

Potential output is an elusive concept. This stands in sharp contrast to its prominent role in economic analysis. In particular, monetary targetting as practised by the Deutsche Bundesbank relies on an estimate of future potential output growth. Different approaches usually lead to fairly...

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of future demographic trends for economic growth, financial markets and public finances. It shows that in the absence of reforms and responses by economic agents, the currently projected demographic trends imply a decline in average real GDP...