Recent papers by Chen et al (2009, 2010) suggest that exchange rates have predictive power over future commodity price movements. We use a Vector Error-Correction model to test this hypothesis using Australian data. We find substantial evidence of in-sample forecasting power but are unable to...

The paper analyses data on arrivals, attendances and average stays of Italian and foreign tourists in a medium-large city, Catania (Sicily), on a monthly basis over the period of January 1992- December 2005. Firstly, these time series are modelled as SARIMA processes. Deterministic, seasonal and...

Trend extraction from time series is often performed by using the filter proposed by Leser (1961), also known as the Hodrick-Prescott filter. A practical problem arises, however, when the time series contains structural breaks (such as produced by German unification for German time series, for...

Trend extraction from time series is often performed by using the filter proposed by Leser (1961), also known as the Hodrick-Prescott filter. A practical problem arises, however, when some data points are missing. This note proposes a method for coping with this problem

In this paper, an exploratory hierarchical method to classify variables is introduced as an alternative to principal component analysis when dealing with stock-exchange price time-series. The method is based on a particular principal component analysis applied to pairs of variables, each one...