We elucidate the statistical mechanical properties of the approval rating time series of several governments from the social dynamics of complex systems and sociophysics points of view. We find that the distribution of approval rating volatility shows exponential independently on nations....

Recent papers by Chen et al (2009, 2010) suggest that exchange rates have predictive power over future commodity price movements. We use a Vector Error-Correction model to test this hypothesis using Australian data. We find substantial evidence of in-sample forecasting power but are unable to...

This paper aims to assess the relationship between industrial productivity and industrial wage share in China between 1980 and 2007, and to identify the determinants of the industrial wage share over the same period. The results suggest that the market reforms in China have led to a reduction of...

Hay esbozos según los cuales las probabilidades se cuentan como la fundación de la teoría matemática de las estadísticas. Mas la significación física de las probabilidades matemáticas son oscuros, muy poco entendidos. Parecíera mejor que las probabilidades físicas se fundaran en las...

The paper analyses data on arrivals, attendances and average stays of Italian and foreign tourists in a medium-large city, Catania (Sicily), on a monthly basis over the period of January 1992- December 2005. Firstly, these time series are modelled as SARIMA processes. Deterministic, seasonal and...

This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE,...

Over the past two decades applied macroeconomics has been transformed by the widespread adoption of a set of new statistical techniques: unit-root tests, vector autoregressions, Granger causality and cointegration. Although these techniques were developed to answer statistical questions, they...

The various scales of a signal maintain relations of dependence the on es with the others. Those can vary in time and reveal speed changes in the studied phenomenon. In the goal to establish these changes, one shall compute first the wavelet transform of a signal, on various scales. Then one...

With overly-rapid socio-economic development and population increases, water abstraction for agricultural, industrial and municipal use increases rapidly, while the water left for ecological maintenance decreases greatly. At the same time, large amounts of polluted water are discharged into...