This paper models the inter-temporal allocation of foreign development aid to Papua New Guinea (PNG). A formal theoretical model of aid allocation is developed, in which aid to any one country is determined jointly with aid to all other recipient countries. This is recognized in the econometric...

Many examples exist of multivariate time series where dependencies between variables change over time. If these changing dependencies are not taken into account, any model that is learnt from the data will average over the different dependency structures. Paradigms that try toexplain underlying...

The performance and economic value of public outlook forecasts has been of continuing interest to agricultural economists and market participants. This dissertation provide new and powerful evidence on the performance of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets over...

This paper analyses the time-series behaviour of the new issue market in the context of an equilibrium model of demand and supply for IPOs. The model produces testable equations examining the relationship between the number of new issues and the average level of under-pricing, and also...

As cyber events have virtually no geographical limitations and can result in economic losses on a global scale, the assessment of return periods for such economic losses is currently debated among experts. The potential accumulation of consequential insurance losses due to intrusions or viruses...

Candlestick charts display the high, low, opening, and closing prices in a specific period. Candlestick patterns emerge because human actions and reactions are patterned and continuously replicate. These patterns capture information on the candles. According to Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of...

We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Portugal and Germany. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in Germany. On the other hand, the response of the budget...

This paper documents the function and use of the Gretl function package VCwrapper.pdf that implements the VC method for estimating time-varying coefficients in linear models as described in Schlicht (2021). It builds on the VCC program by Schlicht (2021a), is easy to use and highly configurable....