We consider a version of the intertemporal general equilibrium model of Cox et al. (Econometrica 53:363–384, <CitationRef CitationID="CR10">1985</CitationRef>) with a single production process and two correlated state variables. It is assumed that only one of them, Y <Subscript>2</Subscript>, has shocks correlated with those of the economy’s output rate...</subscript></citationref>

We consider a version of the intertemporal general equilibrium model of Cox et al. (1985a) with a single production process and two correlated state variables. It is assumed that only one of them, Y2, has shocks correlated with those of the economy's output rate and, simultaneously, that the...

We derive a closed-form solution for the price of a European call option in the presence of ambiguity about the stochastic process that determines the variance of the underlying asset's return. The option pricing formula of Heston (1993) is a particular case of ours, corresponding to the case in...

Literature on dynamic portfolio choice has been finding that volatility risk has low impact on portfolio choice. For example, using long-run U.S. data, Chacko and Viceira (2005) found that intertemporal hedging demand (required by investors for protection against adverse changes in volatility)...

We introduce ambiguity about the variance of the risky asset's return in the model of Chacko and Viceira (2005) for dynamic consumption and portfolio choice with stochastic variance. We find that, with investors being able to update their portfolio continuously (as a function of the...

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The proposed method signi cantly improves upon the original sum-of-the-parts...

We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be signi ficantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. We consider fi fteen predictors from the existing literature, for the...

We extract cycles in the term spread (TMS) and study their role for predicting the equity risk premium (ERP) using linear models. The low frequency component of the TMS is a strong and robust out-of-sample ERP predictor. It obtains out-of-sample R-squares (versus the historical mean benchmark)...

We assess the benefits of using frequency-domain information for active portfolio management. To do so, we forecast the bond risk premium and equity risk premium using a methodology that isolates frequencies (of the predictors) with the highest predictive power. The resulting forecasts are more...