Perron and Wada (J Monet Econ 56:749-65, 2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle …, which presents a mixture of normals in the disturbances of the trend and cycle component of output. The obtained trend … time, admits non-linearities and asymmetries in cycles. The method assumes that output can be represented by a non …

Perron and Wada (J Monet Econ 56:749-65, 2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle …, which presents a mixture of normals in the disturbances of the trend and cycle component of output. The obtained trend … time, admits non-linearities and asymmetries in cycles. The method assumes that output can be represented by a non …

decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle components, which overcomes the identification problems of models of unobserved … this analysis, we choose the UC-CN model, which presents a mixture of normals in the disturbances of the trend and cycle … components (UC) and ARIMA models and at the same time, admits non-linearities and asymmetries in cycles. The method assumes that …

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions … lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … to large recessions. The test has more power than conventional unit root tests. We find that positive and negative shocks …

show that the output gap is large and persistent. Furthermore, the output gap is not correlated with the stochastic trend … Zivot (2003), the unobserved components model of Clark (1987) and a simple quadratic trend. The results show strong di … component model and the simple quadratic trend. …