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We investigate the effect of estimation error on backtests of (multi-period) expected shortfall (ES) forecasts. These backtests are based on first order conditions of a recently introduced family of jointly consistent loss functions for Value-at-Risk (VaR) and ES. We provide explicit expressions...
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Under the revised market risk framework of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the model validation regime for internal models now requires that models capture the tail risk in profit-and-loss (P&L) distributions at the trading desk level. We develop multi-desk backtests, which...
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market was shown to react to news unequally. Volatility spikes sharply when unexpected adverse news reaches the market while …
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investigation of the volatility, VaR, and backtesting of the daily stock price of Total Nigeria Plc is important as most previous …This study investigates the volatility in daily stock returns for Total Nigeria Plc using nine variants of GARCH models … backtesting. We use daily data for Total Nigeria Plc returns for the period January 2, 2001 to May 8, 2017, and conclude that …
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