, and characterize their distribution, focusing on the uncertainty implied by both sampling and the polarization of … this uncertainty concerns the coincidence of responses, or the degree to which polarization comoves, across individual … by the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find a secular rise in consumer uncertainty starting around 2000, following a …

The properties of information, including "information uncertainty", can be understood only Bayesianly. Common … formulations that define information uncertainty in terms of just statistical "precision" (i.e. sampling variance), or any one … characterization are bound to yield Bayesianly incorrect generalizations. In the Bayesian way of thinking, information risk impacts the …

Recent empirical evidence links migrant remittances and return migration, and stresses the impact of uncertainty on …. This paper presents a model of endogenous remittances, savings and return decisions under uncertainty. This setting, which … their return plans. We show that migrants anticipating a large wage in the host country, or a relatively low risk of …

This paper assesses the economics literature on policy uncertainty, addresses puzzles in that literature, and … uncertainty and economic activity, concerns about causal identification remain. However, new empirical measures of uncertainty … allow economists to ask questions with a precision likely to advance enduring debates on sources of uncertainty and their …

We constructed a new index of global uncertainty using the first principal component of the stock market volatility for … the largest 15 economies. We evaluate the impact of global uncertainty on the global economy using the new global database … from Global Economic Indicators (DGEI), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Global uncertainty shocks are less frequent than …

asymmetric behavior toward the upside potential of gain versus the downside risk of loss. Using an asymmetric split normal …-default-model-implied) spread to two illiquidity risk factors. The first factor is extracted from several measures of idiosyncratic illiquidity …

The impact of uncertainty on firms? investment outlays is subject to an ongoing debate.Der Einfluss von Unsicherheit …

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based … stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of … non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we …

uncertainty for 11 advanced nations. These indices exhibit significant independent variation from popular proxies. Using this new … data we control for both first and second moment financial shocks in identifying the real effects of macro uncertainty … macro uncertainty rises during close elections. These are events which are likely to lead to macro uncertainty but are …