We construct a new index of uncertainty — the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) — for 143 individual countries on a … quarterly basis from 1996 onwards. This is defined using the frequency of the word “uncertainty” in the quarterly Economist …, El Niño, European border crisis, UK Brexit vote and the 2016 US election. Uncertainty spikes tend to be more synchronized …

This paper investigates how the disclosure tone of earnings conference calls predicts future stock price crash risk … pessimistic tone during the current year-end call experience higher stock price crash risk in the coming year. Additional analyses … extreme future downside risk where managers may have incentives to communicate truthfully and disclose bad news …

Hoffmann (2018) attempts to reconstruct a typology of risks deemed more accurate and useful to both economists and risk …

The UK's decision to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum created substantial uncertainty for UK businesses. The nature … of this uncertainty is different from that of a typical uncertainty shock because of its length, breadth and political … key results. First, Brexit was reported to be one of the top three sources of uncertainty for around 40% of UK businesses …

The paper analyzes optimal climate policy under uncertainty. It endows a recent quantitative analytic integrated … assessment model (IAM) with long-run risk, adapting methods from the asset pricing literature to deal with endogenous climate … risk. The model solves in closed-form for general degrees of risk aversion, stochastic climate feedbacks, and a stochastic …

This paper provides a new index of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of … uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The index measures the dispersion of forecasts resulting from … parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Over the period 2000Q1-2019Q4, global macroeconomic uncertainty is highly correlated with …

news entropy, we find that decreases are associated with two key features: an increase in uncertainty measures and a …

requires a monopoly reward. The increases in risk that expand output must be substantial however: a small increase will …

shared cognition. Under this view, cultural diversity matters because it increases strategic uncertainty. The model can help …

This paper evaluates the contribution of Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit to the development ofeconomic theory in the 20th … classical and early neoclassical roots. It alsoembodies the basis for Knight’s understanding of uncertainty, profit and …