This paper develops a simple model to examine the reasons behind the capital inflow surges into selected Asian economies in the 1990s prior to the financial crisis of 1997-98. The simple analytical model reveals that persistent uncovered interest differentials and consequent capital inflows may...

Many argue that the yuan needs to appreciate to rebalance the Peoples Republic of Chinas trade. However, empirical evidence on the effects of a CNY appreciation on the Peoples Republic of Chinas exports has been mixed for the largest category of exports, processed exports. Since much of the...

Enormous trade surpluses are problematic for the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and the rest of the world. They primarily stem from processing trade. This paper investigates how exchange rate changes would affect the PRCs imports for processing and processed exports. The results indicate that...

This paper expounds the concept of Dutch Disease as it applies currently to Australia, noting the various gains and losses resulting from the Australian mining boom. "Dutch Disease" refers to the adverse effects through real exchange rate appreciation that such a boom can have on various export...

The objective of this paper is to explore how the external balance of the United States (US) might evolve in future years as the economy emerges from the recession. We examine the issue from the domestic perspective of the saving and investment balance and from the external side in terms of the...

Emerging economies have been subject to abrupt reversals in capital inflows, which have adverse consequences for economic activity and financial stability. An important question for policymakers is how to respond to a sudden loss of external financing and its negative effects on the domestic...

I study the composition of international portfolios under collateral constraints and the implied cross-border transmission of shocks. I develop an international portfolio model with these features, in which leveraged investors seek diversification in both assets and secured liabilities and in...

En este artículo estudiamos la estimación de un nivel de equilibrio de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de Colombia y sus posibles implicaciones para el desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real. Se siguen dos metodologías alternativas para la estimación. Primero, se realiza una...

This paper investigates the large current account deficits observed in most new EU member states using an intertemporal model. The standard model is extended to include: (1) the persistence of current account positions and (2) the relevance of the fiscal balance. Specifically, a closed form...

This paper uses a simple open economy interest rate determination model to empirically examine an important aspect of pre-crisis monetary and exchange rate policy. It investigates whether sterilization of the reserve effects of capital inflows helped keep interest rates sufficiently high that...