Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an...

Extreme sea-level events (e.g. caused by storm surges) can cause coastal flooding, and considerable disruption and damage. To understand the impacts or hazards expected by different sea levels, waves and defence failures, it is useful to monitor and analyse coastal flood events, including...

Estimates of return periods of extreme sea level events along the coast are useful for impact assessment. In this study, a vertically integrated 2D model was developed for the simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. The bathymetry for the model was derived from an improved ETOPO-5 data...

A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information,...

Since 1968 homeowners’ flood insurance in the United States has been mainly provided through the federally-run National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which as of December 2012 had 5.55 million NFIP policies-in-force nationwide with a total of $1.28 trillion of insured coverage (Michel-Kerjan...

Many natural records exhibit long-term correlations characterized by a power-law decay of the auto-correlation function, C(s)∼s−γ, with time lag s and correlation exponent 0γ1. We study, how the presence of such correlations affects the statistics of the return intervals rq for events...

The basic assumption of common extreme value statistics is that different events in a time record are uncorrelated. In this case, the return intervals rq of events above a given threshold size q are uncorrelated and follow the Poisson distribution. In recent years there is growing evidence that...

Due to the lack of proper preparedness in the country against natural disasters, even an earthquake of moderate magnitude can cause extensive damage. This necessitates seismic zonation. Seismic zonation is a process in which a large region is demarcated into small zones based on the levels of...

Turkey has been divided into eight different seismic regions taking into consideration the tectonic environments and epicenters of the earthquakes to examine relationships of the modal values (a/b), the expected maximum magnitudes (M <Subscript>max</Subscript>) and the maximum intensities (I <Subscript>max</Subscript>). For this purpose,...</subscript></subscript>