Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track prediction has been assessed. Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with 30-km resolution was used to make 5-day simulation of the movement of Orissa super...

A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North...

Because of its location close to a region of tropical cyclone formation, the city ofCairns is regularly affected by tropical cyclones. Most cyclones occur in the monthsJanuary–March, although some have affected Cairns in December and April. There is a strong year-to-year variation in tropical...

In recent years, tropical cyclones on the Pacific Northwest have decreased. We cannot infer that tropical cyclones impact China have reduced, because the Pacific Northwest is not homogeneous, and the variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in different sea areas are not clear. This paper...

The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive...

This study presents an intercomparison of four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS) in the prediction of three cases of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. The study makes use of the Weather Research and Forecasting model of Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model version with a horizontal...

The aim of the present study is to understand the impact of oceanic heat potential in relation to the intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal during the pre-monsoon (April–May) and post-monsoon (October–November) cyclones for the period 2006–2010. To accomplish this, the...

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk...

A stochastic model for the tracks of tropical cyclones that allows for the computerised generation of a large number of synthetic cyclone tracks is introduced. This will provide a larger dataset than previously available for the assessment of risks in areas affected by tropical cyclones. To...

Tropical cyclones that make landfall on the coast of the USA are causing increasing economic losses. It is assumed that the losses are largely due to socio-economic developments, i.e. growing wealth and greater settlement of exposed areas. However, it is also thought that the rise in losses is...