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It’s in the News: Developing a Real Time Index for Economic Uncertainty Based on Finnish News Titles

Avela, Aleksi; Lehmus, Markku - 2020

Uncertainty may affect economic behavior of individuals and firms in a wide variety of ways, with typically negative consequences for economic growth. It is due to this fact, combined with rising political uncertainty observed lately in many countries, that uncertainty has gained increasing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603405

Nowcasting in Tunisia using large datasets and mixed frequency models

Ben Romdhane, Hager - 2021

The object of this paper is to nowcast, forecast and track changes in Tunisian economic activity during normal and crisis times. The main target variable is quarterly real GDP (RGDP) and we have collected a large and varied set of monthly indicators as predictors. We use several mixed frequency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606380

Daily news sentiment and monthly surveys: A mixed-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting consumer confidence

Algaba, Andres; Borms, Samuel; Boudt, Kris; Verbeken, Brecht - 2021

sentiment in the dynamic factor model for nowcasting consumer confidence. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606470

The role of ECB speeches in nowcasting German GDP

Koçak, Necmettin Alpay - In: European Financial and Accounting Journal 15 (2020) 2, pp. 5-30

The literature shows that the nowcasting models generally use structured data such as real, financial and survey … indicators. Recent research has focused on finding the way how to use the unstructured data in the nowcasting models. The search … is analysed how the ECB presidents' speeches are included in the nowcasting model and to what degree they affect the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012623028

Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Viet Nam

Lastunen, Jesse; Richiardi, Matteo - 2021

We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012651155

Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data

Aastveit, Knut Are; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; Granziera, Eleonora - 2020

We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661565

The proper use of Google Trends in forecasting models

Medeiros, Marcelo C.; Pires, Henrique - 2021

It is widely known that Google Trends has become one of the most popular free tools used by forecasters both in academics and in the private and public sectors. There are many papers, from several different fields, concluding that Google Trends improve forecasts' accuracy. However, what seems to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012817073

Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators

Cervená, Marianna; Schneider, Martin - 2010

DSGE models are useful tools for evaluating the impact of policy changes but their use for (short-term) forecasting is still at an infant stage. Besides theory based restrictions, the timeliness of data is an important issue. Since DSGE models are based on quarterly data, they are vulnerable to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370080

Forecasting Regional Industrial Production with High-Frequency Electricity Consumption Data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

that electricity consumption is the best performing indicator in the nowcasting setup and has higher accuracy than other …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013427703

Nowcasting Bosnia and Herzegovina GDP in Real Time

Musa, Antonio - 2022

based on the flow of available monthly economic indicators that are available during the same quarter. The nowcasting …. In addition to the models, the choice of the variables and measurement of the loss function in evaluating nowcasting … performance are the core of nowcasting. In a time marked by pandemic of corona virus and war in Ukraine, nowcasting models have …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013432967