We consider forecasting and prequential (predictive sequential) validation of meta-elliptical distributions with time varying parameters. Using the weak prequential principle of Dawid, we conduct model validation avoiding nuisance parameter problems. Results rely on the structure of...

We consider forecasting and prequential (predictive sequential) validation of meta-elliptical distributions with time varying parameters. Using the weak prequential principle of Dawid, we conduct model validation avoiding nuisance parameters problems. Results rely on the structure of...

The problem of division is one of the most important problems in the emergence of probability. It has been long considered “solved” from a probabilistic viewpoint. However, we do not find the solution satisfactory. In this study, the problem is recasted as a statistical problem. The outcomes...

Different from classical Bühlmann and Bühlmann Straub credibility models in which independence between different risks are assumed, this paper takes dependence between risks into consideration and extends the classical Bühlmann model by introducing a common stochastic shock element. What is...

Random shifting typically appears in credibility models whereas random scaling is often encountered in stochastic models for claim sizes reflecting the time-value property of money. In this article we discuss some aspects of random shifting and random scaling of insurance risks focusing in...

Random shifting typically appears in credibility models whereas random scaling is often encountered in stochastic models for claim sizes reflecting the time-value property of money. In this article we discuss some aspects of random shifting and random scaling of insurance risks focusing in...