Cet article mobilise une classe particulière de modèles à composantes inobservables pour s’intéresser au partage de la trajectoire des PIB des pays de la zone euro et de cette zone elle-même entre tendances de long terme et cycles conjoncturels, à partir de données trimestrielles...

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This article estimates inobservable components models for studying the division of the zone euro GDP between trends and cycles, using quarterly data covering all the decades 1960 to 1990. Three approaches are confronted: they respectively identify the European cycles starting from the aggregate...

[eng] European Growth Disrupted by a Short Cycle . . How should we react when economic indicators convey conflicting signals, signs of an apparently troubled and hesitant economic situation, as in 1998? How should we interpret economic deviations between European countries? A cyclical analysis...