Monitoring corruption typically relies on top-down interventions aimed at increasing the probability of external controls and the severity of punishment.  An alternative approach to fighting corruption is to induce bottom-up pressure for reform.  Recent studies have shown that both top-down...

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of rel- ative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for...

In many countries, house prices are subject to boom/bust cycles and in some these are linked to severe economic and financial instability.  Overheating can have both a price and a quantity dimension, but it is likely that they are linked by common drivers.  However, much depends on the...

Understanding the workings of whole economies is essential for sound policy advice - but not necessarily for accurate forecasts.  Structural models play a major role at most central banks and many other governmental agencies, yet almost none forecast the financial crisis and ensuing...

Motivated by a simple model, I use DHS data to test nine hypotheses about the prevalence and decline of African polygamy.  First, greater female involvement in agriculture does not increase polygamy.  Second, past inequality better predicts polygamy today than does current inequality.  Third,...

It is known that unit root test statistics may not have the usual asymptotic properties when the variance of innovations is unstable.  In particular, persistent changes in volatility can cause the size of unit root tests to differ from the nominal level.  In this paper we propose a class of...

Information asymmetries constitute a significant obstacle to capital flows across international borders, and in particular to flows of foreign investment (FDI) to emerging markets.  Many governments aim to reduce information barriers by emerging in investment promotion activities.  Despite...

This study investigates the relationship between parental schooling on the one hand, and child health outcomes (height and weight) and parental health-seeking behaviour (immunisation status of children), on the other.  While establishing a correlational link between parental schooling and child...

A large majority of the labour force were manual workers in 1960.  As voters, they had electoral power to pursue collective goods.  As producers they were able to disrupt production.  The majority left school with no qualifications.  Their human capital consisted of skills specific to...

Between the 1870s and World War II, falls in world shipping costs and Western industrialisation gave rise to export-led Southeast Asian growth and specialization in a narrow range of primary commodity exports.  A linked development was the emergence of a few dominant Southeast Asian urban...