What the market thinks is most likely to occur is not necessarily what the market expects to occur. This note explains why most of the surveys of federal funds rate outlook deviate substantially from the true market expectation, especially as the forecast horizon increases. Surveys often ask...

It is almost self-evident that capital markets can thrive only in a benign macroeconomic environment. What is often overlooked is that malign macro factors such as inflation and government debt, provided that they are kept under control, can have their bright sides. Previous studies typically...

The emergence and persistence of basis spreads in cross-currency basis swaps (CCBSs) since the global financial crisis have become a mystery in international finance, as they violate the long standing principle of covered interest parity (CIP). We argue that the phenomenon is no mystery but...

This note ranks the sensitivities of emerging market economies' (EMEs') bond fund flows to changes in the US monetary stance and global risk aversion. Based on the sensitivities, we draw heat maps to indicate the economies that are more likely to suffer large outflows. We find that bond fund...

This paper puts forward a theory to explain the relationship among the spot exchange rate, the forward exchange rate and the interest differential between two countries in the presence of counterparty credit risk and funding liquidity risk. We argue that covered interest parity deviations...

This study assesses the ‘safehavenness' of a number of currencies with a view to providing a better understanding of how capital flows tend to react to sharp increases in global risk aversion during periods of financial crisis. It focuses on how currencies are perceived by dollar-based...

The growth of Hong Kong SAR's corporate bond market has accelerated considerably since the global financial crisis, suggesting that local corporations increasingly regard market-based financing as a workable alternative to bank-based funding. The acceleration was driven by both cyclical and...

It is well documented in literature that funding condition has been subject to the undue influence of distorted incentives of banks to lend and borrow at quarter ends under Basel III. We investigate whether or not funding risk possibly also suffers the same. Using a state space model, we find...

This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary normalisation on sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific. We apply the quantile vector autoregressive model with principal component analysis to the assessment of tail risk of sovereign debt, which may not be detectable using traditional...