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The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013277350
Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically … successful inflation forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764088
evidence that adjustment is faster when deviations from the equilibrium level get larger. Our forecasting analysis suggests … that asymmetric and non-linear error correction models offer weak evidence of improved forecasting performance relative to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769440
The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008541474
Realized volatility of stock returns is often decomposed into two distinct components that are attributed to continuous price variation and jumps. This paper proposes a tobit multivariate factor model for the jumps coupled with a standard multivariate factor model for the continuous sample path...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008467332
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136844
that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012145
forecasting ability has been compared to that of a linear univariate benchmark (ARIMA) model. Main forecast diagnostics have been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005449468
In this paper, we address the question of which subset of time series should be selected among a given set in order to forecast another series. We evaluate the quality of the forecasts in terms of Mean Squared Error. We propose a family of criteria to estimate the optimal subset. Consistency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010666081
on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114900