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An exploration of real-time revisions of output gap estimates across European countries

Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Lacuesta, Aitor; …

En este documento se analizan las revisiones en tiempo real de las estimaciones de la brecha de producción (output gap) publicadas por la Comisión Europea para 15 países durante el período 2002-2014. De acuerdo con nuestro análisis, las revisiones en tiempo real de las brechas de...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012529564

Fiscal data revisions in Europe

Castro Fernández, Francisco de; Pérez García, Javier … - 2011

Al igual que la mayoría de los datos macroeconómicos, las cifras de déficit público están sujetas a revisiones. Sin embargo, en el caso de Europa, estas podrían ser especialmente preocupantes dado el papel que desempeñan los datos fiscales en el funcionamiento de las reglas de...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012530330

Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K. - 2016

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431288

Reliable real-time output gap estimates based on a modified Hamilton filter

Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2020

We propose a simple modification of Hamilton's (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012234817

New York FED staff nowcasts and reality: What can we learn about the future, the present, and the past?

Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: Econometrics 9 (2021) 1, pp. 1-25

We assess the forecasting performance of the nowcasting model developed at the New York FED. We show that the observation regarding a striking difference in the model's predictive ability across business cycle phases made earlier in the literature also applies here. During expansions, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696316

How well-behaved are revisions to quarterly fiscal data in the euro area?

Ba´nkowski, Krzysztof; Faria, Thomas; Schall, Robert - 2022

, which contains quarterly releases of Government Finance Statistics and which is supplemented by macro variables from Main …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368006

The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real-time realiability tests

Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - 2023

Statistics, 2016, 98(4), 785-791). The negative bias of real-time estimates from the 1980s has disappeared, but the size of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013531826

Does U.S. Monetary Policy Respond to Macroeconomic Uncertainty?

Gomez, Thomas; Piccillo, Giulia - 2023

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377382

Zukunft gestalten mit amtlicher Statistik – Möglichkeiten aus der Perspektive des Datenproduzenten

Hagenkort-Rieger, Susanne - In: WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik 75 (2023) 6, pp. 42-55

The times when official statistics had a monopoly on statistical facts are over. Due to digitalisation, we are instead … shows how the producers of official statistics actually respond to the changing environment. Using illustrative examples, it … development of informed opinion and for times of crises. What framework is needed for official statistics with their unique role …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014452238

Enhancing resilience with natural growth targeting

Orphanides, Athanasios - 2024

Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed's monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014483910