In a recession, the severity of the decline is just as relevant as the duration of the recession.

One way to examine the composition of assets on the Fed's balance sheet is to group them according to the objectives of the programs used to acquire them.

We develop metrics based on Shapley values for interpreting time-series forecasting models, including "black-box" models from machine learning. Our metrics are model agnostic, so that they are applicable to any model (linear or nonlinear, parametric or nonparametric). Two of the metrics,...