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If each member of a group assigns a certain probability to a hypothesis, what probability should the collective as a whole assign? More generally, how should individual probability functions be merged into a single collective one? I investigate this question in case that the individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412461
This paper presents a new answer to the old question of how to aggregate individual beliefs. We construct a model which allows agents to take arbitrage opportunities against the aggregated belief by making contingent claims against the states, and the aggregator (market maker) regulates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010895826
In this paper, we consider a decision-maker who tries to learn the distribution of outcomes from previously observed cases. For each observed database of cases the decision-maker predicts a set of priors expressing his beliefs about the underlying probability distribution. We impose a version of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270218
The α-MEU model and the smooth ambiguity model are two popular models in decision making under ambiguity. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012670885
Are foundations of models of ambiguity-sensitive preferences too flawed to be usefully applied to economic models?  Al …-Najjar and Weinstein do not apply to quite a few of the ambiguity preference models of more recent vintage, and therefore to that … extent do not undermine the foundational aspects or applicability of ambiguity models in general.  Second, we argue the focus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999235
Although much of the theoretical literature on ambiguity works under the assumption of uncertainty aversion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012266826
The α-MEU model and the smooth ambiguity model are two popular models in decision making under ambiguity. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422419
We study the market implications of ambiguity in common models. We show that generic determinacy is a robust feature in … general equilibrium models that allow a distinction between ambiguity and risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010594326
In this paper I want to describe one way of thinking about information. In effect, this paper relates to the notion that organizational or societal models of economic equilibrium incorporate a decision-making mechanism that is influenced by the independent judgment of each individual. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005837425
The paper studies information processing imperfections in a fully rational decision-making network. It is shown that imperfect information transmission and imperfect information acquisition in a multi-stage selection game yield information overload. The paper analyses the mechanisms responsible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256565