This paper studies commodity spot, forward, and futures prices under a continuous-time setting. Our model considers a representative firm, which uses an input commodity to produce an output commodity, stores the commodity, and trades forward or futures commodities to hedge. Through the...

Investment by oil firms positively affects the futures basis and negatively predicts excess returns on crude oil futures. I build an equilibrium model of drilling, exploration, and storage to understand these facts. Firms' capital stock lowers extraction costs as firms drill in increasingly...

This paper studies the trading behavior of different types of traders in commodity futures and their impact on liquidity consumption/provision as well as price discovery in the market. CME classifies each trade by its Customer Type Indicator (CTI) into four groups: a local trader who trades for...

We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...

We analyze the relationship between economic uncertainty and commodity market volatility. We find that commodity market volatility comoves strongly with economic and financial uncertainty, especially during recessions. Variables associated with credit risk, financial market stress, and...

We show that the innovation in the risk-neutral probability of large downward and upward jumps in oil prices has a considerable predictive power for important economic indicators such as GDP growth, consumption growth, and total investment. In addition, we observe that the upside jump risk...

We investigate the impacts of financial investors in commodity markets using intraday trade-and- quote data for commodity futures. We find strong evidence of order flows and price impacts in agricultural futures markets associated with changes in the positions of index traders reported by the...

This paper analyzes the relation between commodity spot, forward prices, and convenience yield under incomplete markets. We model a maximization profit model of a firm that uses input commodities in order to produce output commodities while storing spot commodities and trading forward to hedge...

This paper explores stock return predictability by exploiting the cross-section of oil futures prices. Motivated by the principal component analysis, we find the curvature factor of the oil futures curve predicts monthly stock returns: a 1% per month increase in the curvature factor predicts...

While much is known about the financialization of commodities, less is known about how to profitably invest in commodities. We develop a four-factor asset pricing model of commodity returns. Our four-factor model prices both commodity spot and term risk premia in an intuitive manner related to...