This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. We use a two-step empirical approach. First, we apply a time-varying parameter panel modelling framework...

The debt-to-GDP ratio predicts negatively cumulative nominal consumption growth up to 10-year horizon, which comes from the ratio's ability to forecast both lower real growth and deflation. Moreover, a higher debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with higher yield spreads, controlling for output gap...

This study examines the key drivers of sovereign default risk in five euro area periphery countries and three euro-candidates that are currently pursuing independent monetary policies. We argue that the recent proliferation of sovereign risk premiums stems from both domestic and international...

Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign...

Using an international dataset, this paper documents a negative association between increases in the central government debt-to-GDP ratio and dollar-denominated stock index returns. Depending on the estimation method, raising the debt ratio by one percentage point diminishes the stock returns by...

We provide evidence that the ECB's unconventional monetary policy dampens yield cycles in secondary Eurozone sovereign debt markets around new sovereign debt auctions. This effect increases in market volatility. Cycles caused by domestic auctions and the role of market volatility are largest...

Exploiting information contained in the term-structure of sovereign credit spreads, we estimate time-varying fiscal limits – defined as the maximum outstanding debt that can credibly be covered by future primary budget surpluses. Our approach is based on a novel sovereign credit risk model...

As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and...

Within the last five years, Canada, Sweden and New Zealand have joined the ranks of the United Kingdom and other countries in issuing government bonds that are indexed to inflation. Some observers of the experience in these countries have argued that the United States should follow suit. This...

We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model à la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the commonly used threshold state-contingent bond...