In this paper, we re-examine the profitability of technical analysis using White's Reality Check and Hansen's SPA test that correct the data snooping bias. Comparing to previous studies, we study a more complete universe of trading techniques, including not only simple rules but also investor's...

This paper applies a neural network model to intraday data of exchange rate futures between January 1990 and July 1992. We use the neural network model and the "lag selection method" to explore the intraday patterns of futures market exchange rates. The approach is particularly useful in...

We propose an encompassing test for non-nested linear quantile regression models and show that it has an asymptotic [chi]2 distribution. It is also shown that the proposed test is a regression rank score test in a comprehensive model under conditional homogeneity. Our simulation results indicate...

In the finance literature, statistical inferences for large-scale testing problems usually suffer from data snooping bias. In this paper we extend the "superior predictive ability" (SPA) test of Hansen (2005, JBES) to a stepwise SPA test that can identify predictive models without potential data...

This paper investigates the causal relations between stock return and volume based on quantile regressions. We first define Granger non-causality in all quantiles and propose testing non-causality by a sup-Wald test. Such a test is consistent against any deviation from non-causality in...

We demonstrate that in time trend models, the likelihood-based tests of partial parameter stability have size distortions and cannot be applied to detect the changing pa-rameter. A two-step procedure is then proposed to distinguish between different trend-break models. This procedure involves...