This paper measures the links between financial services and other production sectors in the Luxembourg economy. The focus is on propagation within the country, without considering growth abroad. Among the 29 sectors in the annual input-output tables, financial services is one of only four "key...

We use unobserved components time series models to extract real and financial cycles for Luxembourg over the period 1980Q1-2018Q2. We find that financial cycles are longer and have larger amplitude compared to standard business cycles. Furthermore, financial cycles are highly correlated with...

Deep learning has substantially advanced the state of the art in computer vision, natural language processing, and other fields. The paper examines the potential of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting. We systematically compare long short- term memory networks and gated recurrent units...

Based on ordered Probit models and twenty years of euro area data, we estimate empirical reaction functions for the ECB´s monetary policy and augment them with communication indicators. First, we find that the ECB responded to risks to price stability in line with its primary objective, and...

This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to perform short-term forecasts of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a multidimensional approach,...

This paper examines the statistical properties of daily PM10 in eight European capitals (Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, Helsinki, London, Luxembourg, Madrid and Paris) over the period 2014-2020 by applying a fractional integration framework; this is more general than the standard approach based on...

This study examines how sovereign CDS spreads of Turkey behave in COVID-19 pandemic times by considering that CDS spreads reflect the riskiness, vulnerability, financial stability, and macroeconomic stability of countries and CDS spreads of most of the emerging countries have increased with the...

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of cases and deaths outside the country may vary. To...

We examine the Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV) response to the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) shocks from a panel VAR perspective used for the first time in this context. Focusing on Emerging Market Economies (EME), our noteworthy findings postulate that (a) both home and foreign EPU shocks...

In this paper, we empirically look at the effects of uncertainty on risk measures for exchange rates, by focusing on two recent specific periods: the Brexit and the outbreak of the Covid-19. Based on a Fama regression extended with uncertainty measures, we forecast exchange rate in the short run...