In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. This paper studies the possible implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectional data drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from...

This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different...

A crucially important advantage of the semiparametric regression approach to the nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model developed in Wongsaart et al. (2011), i.e. the so-called Semiparametric ACD (SEMI-ACD) model, is the fact that its estimation method does not require a...

The acceleration of the firm failure rate in France between 2008 and 2010 was preceded by a surge in the number of firms’ creations in 2003-2004. Therefore, identifying the impact of the 2008 crisis requires to distinguish, among the failures occurring over the period, those resulting from the...

Disaster managers allocate resources to accomplish a set of objectives in a highly uncertain environment. The allocation decisions made throughout the course of a disaster inevitably impact final outcomes such as the damage and cost of a disaster. We develop a unique stochastic dynamic model of...

This paper identifies the classes of agents at play in the European Carbon Futures Market and analyzes their trading behaviour during the market's early development period. A number of hypotheses related to microstructure are tested using enhanced ACD models. Evidence is presented that the...

There are large spatial disparities in unemployment durations across the 1,300 municipalities in the Paris region (Ile-de-France). In order to characterize these imbalances, we estimate a proportional hazard model stratified by municipality on an exhaustive dataset of all unemployment spells...

We combine two techniques to consistently estimate the effect of active labour market programmes and, in particular, active labour market policy regimes. Our aim is to explicitly estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes. Based on Danish data (1998-2002) from administrative...

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studies the possible implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment. I estimate a parametric duration model using...