This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the...

We study the valuation of unit-linked life insurance contracts with surrender guarantees. Instead of solving an optimal stopping problem, we propose a more realistic approach accounting for policyholders’ rationality in exercising their surrender option. The valuation is conducted at the...

In this article, we propose new tests for threshold cointegration using an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The indicators in the threshold model can adopt either a nonstationary or stationary threshold variable. The cointegrating vector is not prespecified in this article. We adopt a...

South Dakota has recently experienced a significant increase in the proportion of acres treated with insecticide. Unfortunately, data on insecticide usage by crop at the county level is not available. The following case study seeks to uncover the reasons for this increase by analyzing...

This paper considers four methods for obtaining bootstrap prediction intervals (BPIs) for the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. Method 1 ignores the sampling variability of the threshold parameter estimator. Method 2 corrects the finite sample biases of the autoregressive...

This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the...

The poster covers analysis and models of forward contracting during the contracting period. A conceptual model is presented to explain how contracting patterns relate to industry factors and negotiation power of buyers and sellers. Time series techniques are used to model basis, weekly volume,...

Agriculturally, South Dakota is a unique state possessing the highest rate of adoption for genetically modified crop varieties. In 2009 ninety-six percent of corn acres planted in South Dakota were genetically modified compared with eighty-five percent nationally (Economic Research Service)....