We analyze the post-float real exchange rates for a group of OECD countries using the newly developed threshold test and tests for unit roots against stationary but nonlinear alternative by Caner and Hansen ( 2001). These tools help us disentangle the nonlinearity from the nonstationarity...

No country can develop without an active financial market, able to offer the conditions for financing national economy and also, an advantageous way of investing the temporary available resources. Having in mind this idea, the objective of this paper is to reveal the main coordinates of Romanian...

In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the...

If stock prices followed a random walk, uncertainty about future stock prices would be so great that the observed bias towards equities in long-term investment portfolios would be surprising. The good news is that if, as a growing body of research suggests, there is even a weak tendency for...

This paper seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate, and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the 9 most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability...

Let ξ1,ξ2,… be an iid sequence with negative mean. The (m,n)-segment is the subsequence ξm+1,…,ξn and its score is given by max{∑m+1nξi,0}. Let Rn be the largest score of any segment ending at time n, Rn∗ the largest score of any segment in the sequence ξ1,…,ξn, and Ox the...

Purpose – Turvey (2007, Physica A) introduced a scaled variance ratio procedure for testing the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for financial time series by estimating Hurst coefficients for a fractional Brownian motion model of asset prices. The purpose of this paper is to extend his work by...

In this document we use the Expectations Survey conducted monthly by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of October 2003 - August 2012. We find that exchange rate revaluations were generally followed by expectations of further revaluation in the short run (1 month), but by...