There is growing literature in macroeconomics, especially on business cycle synchronization, employing different methods of time series clustering. However, even as an unsupervised learning method, this technique requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data...

The major objective of this paper is to demonstrate, theoretically and empirically, the test of a single structural break/change. Failure to address a structural break can lead to forecasting errors and the general unreliability of a model. Three approaches of testing for structural change are...

In many, if not most, econometric applications, it is impossible to estimate consistently the elements of the white-noise process or processes that underlie the DGP. A common example is a regression model with heteroskedastic and/or autocorrelated disturbances,where the heteroskedasticity and...

Many complex systems display fluctuations between alternative states in correspondence to tipping points. These critical shifts are usually associated with generic empirical phenomena such as strengthening correlations between entities composing the system. In finance, for instance, market...

This paper analyzes how the OECD revises potential output (PO) estimates after recessions. We show that downward revisions are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks while PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable...

In this empirical work, cognisance has been given to providing a review of literature on the seasonal Box-Jenkins modelling, particularly with reference to a univariate model. Seasonal pattern of Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) has been produced for Sierra Leone and with EVIEWS making use...

In this paper, we develop new threshold cointegration tests with SETAR and MTAR adjustment allowing for the presence of structural breaks in the equilibrium equation. We propose a simple procedure to simultaneously estimate the previously unknown breakpoint and test the null hypothesis of no...

The data mining technique of time series clustering is well established in many fields. However, as an unsupervised learning method, it requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data involved. The aim of this paper is to verify usefulness of the time series...

Employing both the mean-variance framework and the common portfolio risk-optimization, this study adds to the investment research by examining how ideal holdings for emerging and frontier markets (EFM) of the four global regions (Asian, Europe, and Commonwealth of Independent States (Eastern +...