The theory of storage implies that commodity price volatility is inversely related to inventories, and that as inventories decline, spot prices become relatively more volatile than futures prices, and vice versa. These implications are directly tested using inventory and price data for six...

The instability of prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its sources has brought renewed interest in the futures markets. In this paper, we concentrate on the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling) and the CBOT’s wheat contract as a comparison. The purpose...

The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. In this paper, we analyse the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling) and the CBOT’s wheat contract as a comparison, to study their...

This research examines the arbitrage condition between Financial markets and commodity markets According to the standard arbitrage condition, for risk-neutral investors to be indifferent between holding securities or commodities, the expected commodity price appreciation, adjusted for physical...

This paper investigates the effect of information flow on corn futures price variability for the period January 2004 -July 2011. The theoretical framework is the Mixture Distribution Hypothesis, that posits a joint dependence of return volatility and information. The main contribution of this...

The instability of prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its sources has brought renewed interest in the futures markets. In this paper, we concentrate on the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling) and the CBOT’s wheat contract as a comparison. The purpose...

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we...

Expectations about future economic conditions are important determinants of commodity prices. This paper presents a relatively simple model that makes futures prices for corn a function of expected production and inventories and of variables that account for demand shifts. The intent is to...

Commodity and energy prices have exhibited an unprecedented increase between October 2006 and July 2008, only to fall sharply during the last months of 2008. Many explanations have been offered to this phenomenon, including steadily increasing demand from China and India, large mandated...

By allowing for various degrees of asset substitutability between bonds and agricultural products, this paper reexamines the robustness of the overshooting hypothesis of agricultural product prices. It is found, in both a closed economy and an open economy, that the crucial factor determining...