Are excess stock market returns predictable over time and, if so, at what horizons and with which economic indicators? Can stock return predictability be explained by changes in stock market volatility? How does the mean return per unit risk change over time? This chapter reviews what is known...

Suppose that we are searching for the maximum of many unknown and analytically untractable quantities or, say, the 'best alternative' among several candidates. If our decision is based on historical or simulated data there is some sort of selection bias and it is not evident if our choice is...

This study establishes a multi-tier framework to evaluate how fund manager characteristics systematically affect mutual fund performance. The framework includes three tiers of performance elements: 1) comprehensive performance, 2) return and risk, and 3) timing skill and picking ability. Using...

This study establishes a multi-tier framework to evaluate how fund manager characteristics systematically affect mutual fund performance. The framework includes three tiers of performance elements: 1) comprehensive performance, 2) return and risk, and 3) timing skill and picking ability. Using...

Applied researchers often want to make inference for the difference of a given performance measure for two investment strategies. In this paper, we consider the class of performance measures that are smooth functions of population means of the underlying returns; this class is very rich and...

Applied researchers often want to make inference for the difference of a given performance measure for two investment strategies. In this paper, we consider the class of performance measures that are smooth functions of population means of the underlying returns; this class is very rich and...

The paper is an investigation concerning whether the deviations of currencies from their fundamental values affects the relationship between economic fundamentals and exchange rates. To this end, a version of the sticky price monetary exchange rate model, which connects the exchange rates to...

Applied researchers often test for the difference of the Sharpe ratios of two investment strategies. A very popular tool to this end is the test of Jobson and Korkie (1981), which has been corrected by Memmel (2003). Unfortunately, this test is not valid when returns have tails heavier than the...

Most research on the performance and risk of hedge funds are based on calculations that just use the data from one index provider. Also most product providers and even more and more investors are using hedge fund indices for benchmarking purposes. As some academic articles pointed out, the world...

In the context of modern portfolio theory, we compare the out-of-sample performance of 8 investment strategies which are based on statistical methods with the out-of-sample performance of a family of trivial strategies. A wide range of approaches is considered in this work, including the...