We assess the effects on trade balance of a temporary fiscal devaluation enacted by Spain or Portugal by simulating EAGLE, a large-scale multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Social contributions paid by firms are reduced by 1 percent of GDP for four years and are...

Understanding differences in business cycle phenomena between Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and industrialized countries has been at the center of recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of certain credit market imperfections...

This paper has two main objectives. First, it computes capital flight (CF) through trade misinvoicing from India using data from UNCOMTRADE, MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity and IMF E-library. India's trade with 17 countries over the period 1988-2012 is considered. We find that CF has...

This paper has two main objectives. First, it computes capital flight (CF) through trade misinvoicing from India using data from UNCOMTRADE, MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity and IMF E-library. India's trade with 17 countries over the period 1988-2012 is considered. We find that CF has...

This paper examines the international transmission effects that a positive supply shock in emerging economies may have on inflation in developed economies. A three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed to analyze the impact of a supply shock in an emerging...

Based on simulations of an original DGE model of the US, Chinese and Euro area economies with financial frictions and various monetary regimes, the paper shows that the contribution of China in global rebalancing should primarily rely on structural policies aiming at reducing aggregate savings...

The model of the equilibrium exchange rate of ruble is under construction on the basis of streams of the balance of payments of Russia taking into account trade conditions. Export-import transactions, factors of movement of the capital, a trade condition, indexes of the internal and export...

This paper studies the theoretical implications of structural transformation and demographic transition in Mainland China for its domestic economy and the world interest rates. Our proposed model predicts that the transition from a manufacturing-oriented economy to a service-oriented economy...

Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in...

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis...