This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...

This paper presents new estimates of the economic benefits from economic and political integration. Using the synthetic counterfactuals method, we estimate how GDP per capita and labour productivity would have behaved for the countries that joined the European Union (EU) in the 1973, 1980s, 1995...

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics In this paper we survey recent developments on economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market...

This paper investigates the impact of a changing market environment on the pricing of CDS spreads written on debt from EURO STOXX 50 firms. A Panel Smooth Transition Regression reveals that parameter estimates of standard CDS fundamentals are time-varying depending on current values of a set of...

This paper explores the robustness of behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) models, focusing on a panel specification with Swiss franc real bilateral rates as dependent variables. We use Bayesian model averaging to illustrate model uncertainty, and employ real exchange rates computed from...

Using the generalized dynamic factor model of Forni and al. (2004), one estimates the spectral density matrix. One detects four common factors revealed by the dynamic eigenvalues within the Central African Monetary and Economic Union zone (CAMEU). This allows building a relevant indicator which...

In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a general framework which includes both the sparse and dense longitudinal data cases. A semiparametric estimation method based on the combination of the local linear smoothing and generalized estimation...

Abstract: Analyzing the effect of family planning on child survival remains an important issue but is not straightforward because of several mechanisms linking family planning, birth intervals, total fertility, and child survival. This study uses a dynamic model jointly explaining infant...

The inverse probability weighted Generalised Empirical Likelihood (IPW-GEL) estimator is proposed for the estimation of the parameters of a vector of possibly non-linear unconditional moment functions in the presence of conditionally independent sample selection or attrition.The estimator is...

This paper presents some two-step estimators for a wide range of parametric panel data models with censored endogenous variables and sample selection bias. Our approach is to derive estimates of the unobserved heterogeneity responsible for the endogeneity/selection bias to include as additional...