This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on real interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long-term relationships...

This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on real interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long-term relationships...

Long-term real interest rates across the world have fallen by about 450 basis points over the past 30 years. The co-movement in rates across both advanced and emerging economies suggests a common driver: the global neutral real rate may have fallen. In this paper we attempt to identify which...

We quantify the impact of demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping-generations model. Falling birth and death rates across advanced economies can explain much of the observed fall in real interest rates and the rise in house prices and...

We quantify the impact of past and future global demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping generations model. Falling birth and death rates can explain a large part of the fall in world real interest rates and the rise in house prices and...

This paper studies the evolution of the equilibrium real interest rate (ie natural or neutral interest rate) in Asia-Pacific. I take an empirical approach to estimate the rate, simple estimates suggest that except for China, and Thailand since 2005, the natural interest rate may have declined...