During the 1990s, Japan began experiencing demographic changes that are larger and more rapid than in other OECD countries. These demographic changes will become even more pronounced in future years. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution...

his paper considers the properties of an optimal monetary policy when households are subject to counter-cyclical uninsured income shocks. We develop a tractable incomplete-markets model with Calvo price setting. In our model the welfare cost of business cycles is large when the variance of...

We consider a dynamic, stochastic equilibrium business cycle model which is augmented to reflect seasonal shifts in preferences, technology, and government purchases. Our estimated parameterization implies implausibly large seasonal variation in the state of technology: rising at an annual rate...

This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider three distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in...

Between 1960 and 1990 Japanese labor productivity rose from 27 percent of the U.S. to 87 percent. These productivity gains are associated with large variations in Japanese TFP. We find that movements in Japanese TFP are associated with prior movements in U.S. R&D expenditures. Model simulations...

This paper poses the following question: Is it possible to improve welfare by increasing taxes and throwing away the revenues? This paper demonstrates that the answer to this question is "yes." We show that there may be welfare gains from taxing capital income even when the additional capital...

This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider four distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in...

Japan has now experienced over a decade of slow growth and deflation. This period has also been associated with protracted problems in the banking sector. A wide range of measures have been tried in to restore health in the banking sector including recapitalization, the extension of 100%...

We develop a quantitative costly price adjustment model with capital formation for the Japanese Economy. The model respects the zero interest rate bound and is calibrated to reproduce the nominal and real facts from the 1990s. We use the model to investigate the properties of alternative...