We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to...

This paper presents a fully rational general equilibrium model that produces a time-varying exchange rate risk premium and solves the uncovered interest rate parity (U.I.P) puzzle. In this two-country model, agents are characterized by slow-moving external habit preferences similar to Campbell &...

Changes in exchange rates are not random. Two economically motivated factors account for 20% to 90% of the daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual exchange rate movements in developed countries and in emerging and developing countries with floating exchange rates. The different shares of...

What accounts for the unprecedented decline in world trade during the crisis? What have been the consequences of shifting risk appetites for international capital flows? How have they differed across developed and developing economies? We answer these questions in an international real business...

Emerging countries tend to default when their economic conditions worsen. If bad times in an emerging country correspond to bad times for the US investor, then these foreign sovereign bonds are particularly risky and should offer high returns. We explore how this mechanism plays out in the data...

We explore the implications of recursive utility for the conduct of fiscal policy.

In a model with housing collateral, the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth shifts the conditional distribution of consumption growth. In the model, a decrease in house prices reduces the collateral value of housing, increases household exposure to idiosyncratic risk, reduces the amount of...

Standard theory prescribes that the government hedge against shocks to its expenditures by generating total debt portfolio returns with a negative beta on government expenditure innovations. This paper asseses how well the government manages its debt portfolio against the benchmark government...

Governments have traditionally financed their activities by selling nominal debt of various maturities. A long standing question concerns the optimal management of these liabilities. Many contributors have posited a role for short term nominal debt, either on cost minimization grounds or on tax...