We analyze the time series properties of the S&P500 dividend-price ratio in the light of long memory, structural breaks and rational bubbles. We find an increase in the long memory parameter in the early 1990s by applying a recently proposed test by Sibbertsen and Kruse (2009). An application of...

In this paper we analyze the convergence of interest rates in the European Monetary System (EMS) in a framework of changing persistence. This allows us to estimate the exact date of full convergence from the data. A change in persistence means that a time series switches from stationarity to...

We estimate monetary policy rules for six central and eastern European countries (CEEC) during the period, when they prepared for membership to the EU and monetary union. By taking changes in the policy settings explicitly into account and by introducing several new methodological features we...

The choice of an exchange rate arrangement affects exchange rate volatility: higher flexibility goes ahead with increasing volatility and vice versa (Flood and Rose 1995, 1999). We investigate five Central and Eastern European countries between 1994 and 2004. The analysis merges two approaches,...

This paper examines the roles of order flow (reflecting private information) and news (reflecting public information) in explaining exchange rate volatility. Analyzing four months of a bank’s high frequency US dollar-euro trading, three different kinds of order flow are used in addition to...

We apply the spread decomposition model by Huang and Stoll (1997) to a new dataset on the Hungarian Forint/Euro interbank market. In contrast to previous results we cover a minor market over a long time span. We find a significant inventory effect, which can be explained by the low number of...

Nonlinear modeling of adjustments to purchasing power parity has recently gained much attention. However, a huge body of the empirical literature applies ES- TAR models and neglects the existence of other competing nonlinear models. Among these, the Markov Switching AR model has a strong...

We record the existence of an availability heuristic that is reflected in disaster myopia of U.S. investors and exists prior to the attacks of 9/11. We argue that this is fueled by an aggregate experience hypothesis effect, resulting in a pronounced increase in the sensitivity of U.S. stock...

We study the tightness of the complete electronic interbank foreign exchange market for the HUF/ EUR over a two year period. First, we review the cost components that a liquidity provider on this type of market faces, and integrate them in an empirical spread decomposition model. Second, we...

We study intraday jumps on a pure limit order FX market by linking them to news announcements and liquidity shocks. First, we show that jumps are frequent and contribute greatly to the return volatility. Nearly half of the jumps can be linked with scheduled and unscheduled news announcements....