In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting stock index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954 to...

Believers in the law of small numbers tend to overinfer the outcome of a random process after a small series of observations. They believe that small samples replicate the probability distribution properties of the population. We provide empirical evidence indicating that investors are...

We explore the flow-performance interrelation by explicitly separating the investment and divestment decisions of hedge fund investors. The results show that different determinants and evaluation horizons underlie both decisions. While money inflows are sensitive to past long-run performance,...

Rede, in verkorte vorm uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van hoogleraar Ondernemingsfinanciering aan de Faculteit der Bedrijfskunde en de Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen van de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam op vrijdag 21 juni 2002