The expected utility hypothesis is one of the building blocks of classical economic theory and founded on Savage's Sure-Thing Principle. It has been put forward, e.g. by situations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, that real-life situations can violate Savage's Sure-Thing Principle and...

The carved and painted decorations in traditional Batak houses and buildings, gorga, are the source of their exoticism. There are no identical patterns of the ornaments within Batak houses and the drawings are closely related to the way ancient Batak capture the dynamicity of the growing “tree...

Social scientists are producing an ever growing stream of research findings, which is ever more difficult to oversee. As a result, capitalization on earlier investment declines and accumulation of knowledge stagnates. This situation calls for more research synthesis and interest in synthetic...

The aim of this paper is to obtain some statistical properties about runs of daily returns of ISE30, ISE50 and ISE100 indices and compare these results with the empirical stylized facts of developed stock markets. In this manner, all time historical daily closing values of these indices are...

This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

This study establishes necessary conditions for Almost Stochastic Dominance criteria of various orders. These conditions take the form of restrictions on algebraic combinations of moments of the probability distributions in question. The relevant set of conditions depends on the relevant order...

In this paper we �first develop a theory of almost stochastic dominance for risk-seeking investors to the first three orders. Thereafter, we study the relationship between the preferences of almost stochastic dominance for risk-seekers with that for risk averters.

We introduce a “reason-based” way of rationalizing an agent’s choice behaviour, which explains choices by specifying which properties of the options or choice context the agent cares about (the “motivationally salient properties”) and how he or she cares about these properties (the...

This paper investigates the impact of background risk on an investor’s portfolio choice in a mean-VaR, mean-CVaR and mean-variance framework, and analyzes the characterizations of the mean-variance boundary and mean-VaR efficient frontier in the presence of background risk. We also consider...

In this paper, we analyze the impacts of joint energy and output prices uncertainties on the inputs demands in a mean-variance framework. We find that an increase in expected output price will surely cause the risk averse firm to increase the inputs’ demand, while an increase in expected...