Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our...

We introduce an accurate, easily implementable, and fast algorithm to compute optimal decisions in discrete-time long-horizon welfaremaximizing problems. The algorithm is useful when interest is only in the decisions up to period T, where T is small. It relies on a flexible parametrization of...

In this paper we compare three methods for the determination of the reorder point s in an (R; s; Q) inventory model subject to a service level constraint. The three methods di er in the modelling assumptions of the demand process which in turn leads to three di erent approximations for the...

Abstract: We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of pass-through of the policy rate to bank-lending rates....

In almost all countries supply, distribution and use of cannabis is prohibited. Nevertheless, cannabis is the most popular illicit drug. Prohibition does not seem to work. The debate on legalization of cannabis is often emotional with strong views of both proponents and opponents but ignorance...