Microscopic simulation models are often evaluated based on visual inspection of the results.This paper presents formal econometric techniques to compare microscopic simulation (MS) models with real-life data.A related result is a methodology to compare different MS models with each other.For...

This paper considers Bayesian nonparametric estimation of conditional densities by countable mixtures of location-scale densities with covariate dependent mixing probabilities. The mixing probabilities are modeled in two ways. First, we consider finite covariate dependent mixture models, in...

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...

The chaos theory assumes that the returns dynamics are not normally distributed and more complex approaches have to be used to study these time series. In fact, the Fractal Market Hypothesis assumes that the returns dynamics are not independent of the investors’ attitudes and represent the...

Both parametric and semiparametric GARCH in mean estimations find a positive but insignificant relationship between expected stock returns and volatility in emerging stock markets. The 1997¡V1998 global emerging market crisis seems to induce changes in GARCH parameters.

This paper attempts to estimate stochastic discount factor (SDF) proxies nonparametrically using the conditional Hansen–Jagannathan distance. Nonparametric estimation can not only avoid misspecification when dealing with nonlinearity in the model but also provide more precise information about...

Option-implied risk-neutral densities incorporate market expectations with respect to the future course of option underlyings. Under the risk neutrality assumption various methods have been developed. In this paper, we look into two of them: parametric mixture of lognormals method and...

This paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD tests...

We introduced in this study a model of sovereign debt with an embedded Down-and-In Put (DIP) to capture the discontinuity in sovereign debt pricing. This study suggests that debt forgiveness is a more effective solution in debt crisis, as repayment bonus or award or capital market exclusion...