This paper extends the Svensson inflation forecast targeting framework with a convex Phillips curve. An asymmetric target rule is derived, which implies a higher level of nominal interest rates than the Svensson forward-looking version of the reaction function popularized by Taylor. Extending...

In this paper we analyse disinflation policy in two environments. In the first, the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated; in the second, the central bank has to learn the private...

The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard...

This paper develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the theoretical rigor of a micro-founded DSGE model with the flexibility of an atheoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real Gross National Product (GNP), consumption,...